🔸 The Dangers & Psychology of Your Assumptions
Avoid their mistakes: What do Nokia and Blockbuster have in common?
"Assumptions are dangerous things to make, and like all dangerous things to make—bombs, for instance, or strawberry shortcake—if you make even the tiniest mistake you can find yourself in terrible trouble."
— Lemony Snicket
"The Indian philosopher J. Krishnamurti once remarked that observing without assuming is the highest form of human intelligence. When I first read this statement, the thought, ‘What nonsense!’ shot through my mind before I realized that I had just made an assumption.”
— Marshall B. Rosenberg (edited by Sol for clarity)
My dear readers, welcome to August! 🌼
If you don’t understand assumptions, you’ll never be free of illusions.
Assumptions is wired in our primal brain and it’s scary how they work.
Bad news? They are an core part of our Nature.
Good news? We can bend them to our will.
But what is an assumption, really? Oxford Dictionary define it as:
Assumptions has existed since the dawn of Humankind.
It shapes our perceptions, guides our decisions, and influences our interactions.
While assumptions can provide short-term comfort, they often lead to misunderstandings, errors, and even significant life consequences. In this essay, we'll dissect the role of assumptions in the nature of Humans, their impact on various aspects of life, and practical strategies you can use to question and refine these assumptions for better outcomes.
Before we start, what are you assuming right now? 😉
As always, we will dissect this topic in 5 acts:
The Role of Assumptions in HumanNature
Survival and Assumptions
The Rise and Fall of Nokia
The Assumptions Leading to Complacency
The Disruption of the Smartphone Era
Internal Struggles and Strategic Missteps
The Decline and Lessons Learned
Assumptions in Your Life
Assumptions in Personal Relationships
Health and Wellbeing
⚠️
Meta Assumptions: Assumptions About Assumptions⚠️5 Common Examples of Meta AssumptionsThe Impact of Meta AssumptionsMy Personal Tip to Uncover and Question My Assumptions
The Fall of a Titan: The Death of Blockbuster
A Cautionary Tale of Assumptions
The Assumptions That Led to Complacency
The Birth of Netflix and Digital Streaming
The Decline and Fall
Wrapping it all up
Act 1: The Role of Assumptions in Human Nature
From the moment we wake up to the time we go to bed, our lives are filled with assumptions.
We assume the sun will rise, our car will start, and our coffee will be hot. These assumptions are not inherently bad; they help us navigate daily life without constantly questioning every detail.
But deeper assumptions about ourselves, others, and the world can lead to significant issues if left unchecked.
"Assumptions are the termites of our relationships."
— Henry Winkler
Survival and Assumptions
Humans have always relied on assumptions for survival.
Our ancestors assumed that rustling in the bushes might indicate a predator and acted accordingly. This quick decision-making based on assumptions ensured their survival in a dangerous world. Today, while our environment has changed, the fundamental reliance on assumptions remains.
Think about it, in a work environment, you might assume that your colleague understands your instructions the same way you do.
This assumption can lead to miscommunication and errors if not clarified. Similarly, in personal relationships, assuming your partner knows what you want without explicit communication can cause unnecessary conflicts.
Assumptions influence every aspect of our lives, often without us realizing it.
Let's delve into how they affect different other areas of our lives:
Act 2: The Rise and Fall of Nokia
Nokia's story is a classic example of how assumptions can lead to the downfall of even the most dominant players in an industry.
Once a titan in the mobile phone market, Nokia's journey from unparalleled success to dramatic decline is a compelling case study in the dangers of complacency and the failure to question underlying assumptions.
The Golden Era of Nokia
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Nokia was the undisputed leader in the mobile phone industry.
The Finnish company enjoyed a market share that many competitors could only dream of. Nokia's phones were synonymous with reliability, durability, and innovative design. The iconic Nokia 3310, launched in 2000, became a cultural phenomenon and meme and is still remembered fondly for its long battery life and near-indestructible build.
The Assumptions Leading to Complacency
Despite its dominant position, Nokia began to make 3 critical assumptions that would eventually lead to its downfall:
1. Market Dominance
Nokia assumed that its market dominance was unassailable and that its brand strength would continue to secure its position at the top. Not for long.
2. Consumer Preferences:
Nokia believed that consumers would continue to prioritize the features that had made them successful—durability, battery life, and basic functionality—over other emerging trends. An error in judgement.
3. Innovation Pace:
Nokia assumed that the incremental improvements it was making to its existing products were sufficient to stay ahead of the competition. Nope.
The Disruption of the Smartphone Era
In 2007, Apple introduced the iPhone, a revolutionary device that combined a phone, an iPod, and an internet communicator into one sleek package.
The iPhone's emphasis on a touchscreen interface, apps, and seamless user experience set a new standard for mobile devices. Around the same time, Google launched the Android operating system, providing a flexible and open-source platform for other manufacturers like Samsung to innovate and compete.
Nokia's response to these disruptions was slow and inadequate.
Internal Struggles and Strategic Missteps
Nokia's internal culture also played a significant role in its decline.
The company was plagued by organizational silos, where different departments operated in isolation, leading to a lack of cohesive strategy and innovation. Moreover, Nokia's management was reluctant to take risks and disrupt its successful but aging product lines.
In 2011, Nokia made a bold move by partnering with Microsoft to adopt the Windows Phone operating system.
While this partnership showed promise, it was too little too late. The Windows Phone failed to gain significant market traction against the entrenched positions of iOS and Android.
The Decline and Lessons Learned
By the time Nokia realized the extent of the market shift, its market share had plummeted. In 2013, Nokia sold its mobile phone business to Microsoft, marking the end of an era for the once-dominant company. Nokia's share of the global smartphone market had dropped to less than 3%, a stark contrast to its peak years.
The fall of Nokia serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of making unchecked assumptions, that no matter how big you are, you can still trip by your own thinking. As they say, the bigger you are, the harder you fall.
Act 3: Assumptions in Your Life
Assumptions in Personal Relationships
Going back to Humans, assumptions play a crucial role in personal relationships.
Misunderstandings often arise from assuming we know what the other person is thinking or feeling. Think about it, you might assume your partner prefers a certain type of gift based on past preferences, but their tastes may have changed.
This assumption can lead to disappointment and hurt feelings.
"Assumptions are the mother of all mistakes."
— Eugene Lewis Fordsworthe
Health and Wellbeing
Health-related assumptions can have serious consequences.
For instance, assuming that a particular diet or exercise regimen is universally beneficial can overlook individual differences. One person's dietary needs may differ significantly from another's, leading to adverse health effects if the assumption is incorrect.
A famous example is the low-fat diet craze of the 1980s and 1990s.
Many people assumed that all fats were bad for health, leading to a surge in low-fat, high-sugar products. This assumption ignored the complexities of nutrition and contributed to rising obesity rates and related health issues.
Later research revealed that healthy fats are essential for a balanced diet, debunking the simplistic assumption that fat equals bad.
⚠️ Act 4: Meta Assumptions: Assumptions About Assumptions ⚠️
Meta assumptions are beliefs about our assumptions themselves.
They're often buried deep in our thinking, making them an ass to spot. These assumptions can stop us from really thinking about our thoughts, leading to mistakes and self-deception. Understanding and questioning these meta assumptions helps us see the world more clearly.
Example: There are people reading about assumptions assuming it does not apply to them. That’s a meta assumption.
5 Common Examples of Meta Assumptions
Assumption of Logical Basis:
Example: You might think all your opinions are logical and reasonable.
This assumption can make you miss how emotions and other factors shape your thoughts. For instance, you might believe your political views are entirely logical but not realize how your experiences and social influences have shaped them.
Assumption of Objectivity:
Example: You might believe your view of reality is objective and unbiased. But is it really?
This can prevent you from seeing how your personal biases color your understanding. For example, if you think your judgment about a colleague’s performance is objective, you might miss how your past interactions with them affect your view.
Assumption of Consistency:
Example: You might assume your beliefs and values are consistent in all situations.
This can lead to discomfort when you notice inconsistencies. For instance, you might value environmental conservation but not realize how some of your daily habits, like using plastic, go against this value.
Assumption of Universality:
Example: You might think everyone shares your experiences and perspectives.
This can cause misunderstandings. For example, if you assume everyone loves your favorite hobby as much as you do, you might overlook their different interests and priorities.
Assumption of Permanence:
Example: You might believe your current beliefs and assumptions will never change.
This can stop you from growing and adapting. For instance, if you think your career choice is final and unchangeable, you might ignore new opportunities or fail to adapt to industry changes.
The Impact of Meta Assumptions
Meta assumptions affect many parts of our lives, like personal growth, relationships, and work. Here are some examples:
In Personal Development:
Example: If you believe you're not creative because of past experiences, this assumption can stop you from trying new creative activities like painting or writing. Questioning this assumption might help you find new talents and interests.
In Relationships:
Example: If you think good communication comes naturally to everyone, this assumption can lead to frustration during conflicts. Realizing this can help you work on improving your communication skills and understanding different communication styles.
In Professional Success:
Example: If you believe success at work is only about hard work, you might miss the importance of networking and strategic opportunities. Questioning this assumption can help you take a more well-rounded approach to your career.
My Personal Tip to Uncover and Question Assumptions
Daily Reflection
One thing that helps me is spending a 5-10 minutes each day reflecting on my own assumptions.
I will identify situations where assumptions influence my decisions or interactions. Followed by question on how these assumptions affected the outcomes.
For instance, I reflected on a recent debate on Substack and consider what assumptions I made about the other person's intentions.
Did I assume they were trying to undermine me, or were they simply expressing a different perspective?
This helps me to have a more balanced view of reality. I hope it helps you!
Last Act: The Fall of a Titan: The Death of Blockbuster
Blockbuster, once a dominant force in the video rental industry, failed to question its assumptions about consumer behavior and market trends.
The company assumed that customers would continue to prefer physical rentals over digital streaming. This assumption prevented Blockbuster from adapting to the changing landscape, leading to its eventual bankruptcy as Netflix and other streaming services gained popularity .
Blockbuster's downfall illustrates how business success depends on continuously questioning and updating assumptions to stay relevant and competitive.
A Cautionary Tale of Assumptions
Blockbuster's story is one of rapid ascent to market dominance followed by an equally swift decline.
It serves as a stark reminder of how failing to question assumptions about consumer behavior and market trends can lead to the downfall of even the most established companies.
Founded in 1985, Blockbuster quickly became a giant in the video rental industry.
By the early 2000s, Blockbuster had over 9,000 stores worldwide, serving millions of customers. The company’s blue and yellow stores were a familiar sight in towns and cities, offering a vast selection of movies and video games for rental.
The Assumptions That Led to Complacency
Despite its dominant market position, Blockbuster made 3 critical assumptions that would eventually contribute to its decline:
1. Consumer Preferences:
Blockbuster assumed that consumers would continue to prefer physical rentals over digital options. The company believed that the in-store experience and the immediate availability of movies would keep customers coming back.
2. Market Stability:
Blockbuster assumed that its business model was stable and that the market would not change significantly. This assumption led to a lack of innovation and a failure to explore new business models.
3. Competitor Threat:
Blockbuster underestimated the threat posed by emerging competitors, particularly Netflix, which was pioneering a new approach to movie rentals through mail-order DVDs and, later, streaming.
The Birth of Netflix and Digital Streaming
In 1997, Netflix was founded with a vision to revolutionize the movie rental industry.
Initially, Netflix offered a subscription-based model where customers could rent DVDs by mail without late fees. This model was a direct response to customer frustrations with Blockbuster's late fees and limited rental periods.
By the mid-2000s, Netflix began shifting towards streaming, allowing customers to watch movies and TV shows instantly online. This was a game-changer in the industry, catering to the growing demand for convenience and instant gratification.
Blockbuster had an opportunity to buy Netflix for $50 million in 2000 but dismissed the idea, assuming that its traditional rental model was superior and that Netflix posed no significant threat.
They were wrong. This decision would later be seen as one of the biggest missed opportunities and error in judgement in business history.
The Decline and Fall
By the late 2000s, Blockbuster was in a downward spiral. The company's revenues plummeted, and it struggled with mounting debt. In 2010, Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy, and by 2013, most of its stores were closed, marking the end of a sad era—the death of a once-feared titan.
"The most dangerous phrase in the English language is, 'We've always done it this way.'"
— Rear Admiral Grace Hopper
Wrapping it all up
Assumptions are a fundamental aspect of human nature, guiding our perceptions, decisions, and interactions.
While they provide short-term utility, unchecked assumptions can lead to misunderstandings, errors, and significant life consequences. By recognizing and questioning our assumptions, we can achieve a clearer understanding of reality, make better decisions, and lead more fulfilling lives.
To assume is to take for granted. If you take it for granted, you'll miss the opportunity to truly understand.
You must embrace the challenge of questioning your assumptions, and you will unlock new paradigms that can change your worldview. Whether in your career, relationships, or personal growth, the practice of critically examining your assumptions will lead to greater clarity, truth, and success.
You made it to the end! I’m proud of you. So, after learning about the psychology of assumptions, what are you assuming right now? 😉
- sol
P.S. This is an Exclusive Essay—thank you for your support!